Look closely in the Wikipedia caption and you'll see me credited. The image you've seen repeatedly on the socials is from Wikipedia (creator unknown) and is a recreation of my diagram. I've received many copyright requests over the years to include the original artwork in books and articles. This is probably a commercial cargo plane. Original diagram visualizing what Abraham Wald's findings might have looked likeĬlearly the aircraft I chose at the time was not historically accurate. Here's the original artwork created circa 2005: This later become known as survivorship bias. I wasn't aware of anyone who had visualized this, so sometime around 2005 I hastily plotted fictitious red dots on a poorly-chosen commercial aircraft outline and began including this in slide decks and blog posts. Here's his full report from 1943.Īt the time I was actively speaking at web conferences in the US & Europe on the topic of problem solving among other things, and Wald's story was a terrific demonstration of solving (and defining) the right problem. He drew the unusual conclusion to reinforce aircraft not where the bullets were most concentrated but instead least concentrated - the most vulnerable parts that couldn't withstand enemy fire. Sometime in the early 2000s I stumbled on the story of Abraham Wald who plotted bullet holes on aircraft returning from battles in WWII. Let's set the record straight: if you've seen this image a bunch of times you have me to blame. The now-ubiquitous Wikipedia image inspired by my original artwork circa 2005 Abraham Wald and the airplane diagram with red bullet holes – here's the origin story - Cameron Moll Cameron Moll Journal About Shop ContactĪbraham Wald and the airplane diagram with red bullet holes – here’s the origin story 24 March 2022
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